Executive Summary
The unpredictability of US trade policy has dented exporters’ confidence: 42% of exporting companies now anticipate turnover to decline between -2% and -10% over the next 12 months – compared to fewer than 5% before “Liberation Day”. Conducted across approximately 4,500 companies in China, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Singapore, Spain, the UK and the US in two waves over March and April 2025, the Allianz Trade Global Survey reveals that close to 60% of firms expect a negative impact from the full-fledged trade war initiated by the Trump administration on 2 April, also called “Liberation Day”. Less than half of companies expect positive export growth, compared to 80% before “Liberation Day”. Production could also be hit, with 27% of firms saying that they could stop production temporarily as FX volatility exacerbates the cost of higher tariffs, and 32% intend to stop imports or offshore production to avoid delays or increased costs. In terms of investment outlook, companies are increasingly focusing on operational efficiency and cost-cutting, with 45% of German firms prioritizing these measures post “Liberation Day”. Conversely, 77% of Chinese firms are looking to diversify into new business lines and increasing capital expenditures in strategic areas. Even with the advent of bilateral trade deals in recent weeks, some of the relief could prove temporary and it is definitely the volatility and scale of changes that will push companies to diversify further, as they already have since President Trump’s first term in 2017.
More than half of exporters anticipate longer payment terms, with delays to exceed seven days in half of the cases. Only 11% of export companies continue to be paid within 30 days, but this figure is notably lower among top exporters like the US, China and Germany. Approximately 70% of companies receive payments between 30 and 70 days, with the UK (75%), France (73%), Italy (73%) and the US (73%) slightly more numerous than peers. Sectors such as retail, computers and telecom, construction and automotive report payment terms below 50 days on average, while transport equipment, energy, electricity, metals, paper and agrifood experience longer terms (above 50 days on average). Larger firms tend to experience longer payment delays, with 26% of surveyed companies having a turnover above EUR5bn facing payment terms exceeding 70 days, compared to 18% for the overall sample average. The trade war has hit expectations in payment terms: After “Liberation Day”, 24% of exporters anticipate longer payment terms to exceed seven days, a surge of +13pps, with exporters in Italy and Poland particularly concerned (+23pps and +26pps, respectively). Overall, this deterioration affects over half of exporters, especially smaller firms and key sectors like wholesale, retail, agriculture and manufacturing. In this context, payment terms are likely to be even less of an option when it comes to financing activities: already before “Liberation Day”, only 14% of firms chose payment terms as their top source of finance, with cash flows (21%) and bank loans (18%) being preferred. Additionally, nearly half of exporters (48%) anticipate increased non-payment risk, especially in the US (+21pps), Italy (+13pps), and the UK (+24pps), with expectations rising notably post “Liberation Day”.
Even though the new trade deal brings the US average import tariff rate on China to 39%, down from an eye-watering 103%, this is still much higher than the 13% applied before the second Trump administration. As a result, US firms will likely continue to frontload imports as a strategic response, alongside rerouting shipments. Before tariffs kicked in, 79% of American companies raced to frontload shipments from China, with a proactive 25% having started before the November 2024 election, especially in sectors such as agriculture, machinery and metals, while those in agrifood and computers dragged their feet. After “Liberation Day”, most firms said they would seek alternative shipping routes to keep customs costs under control, notably 62% in the US. Rerouting is being facilitated by lower shipping costs, which have dropped by almost -50% since the beginning of the year. Despite the US-China deal, we believe rerouting will continue as a mitigation strategy as the tariff rate on China remains significantly higher than that applied on emerging trade hubs like Southeast Asia, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Latin American countries.
Firms are pushing costs on others: from raising prices on their customers to leaving customs duties to their suppliers. Despite recent positive developments, price hikes are likely to remain the go-to strategy globally to counter tariff impacts, especially in the US where 54% of firms said they would do so after “Liberation Day” (compared with 46% before). Sourcing from new markets is the second most preferred option among ways to mitigate the impact of tariffs, climbing from 26% to 31%, especially in Poland and Spain. Few companies intend to absorb increased costs (22%), an option that was less chosen after “Liberation Day” in the US, France and Italy. For Chinese exporters, the 90-day pause provides some breathing room before hiking prices, which could enable other strategies such as absorbing the higher costs and diversifying supply sources. Firms in general are also trying to push the cost and responsibility of customs duties onto their suppliers: Our survey shows buyers’ Incoterms preferences moving towards “Delivered Duty Paid” globally, thereby leaving to the seller the responsibility to manage logistics and costs (including customs) all the way to buyer’s locations. An interesting exception is in the US, where “Cost, Insurance & Freight” remains king. Companies also want to share the cost of FX volatility, with 59% choosing the introduction of pricing clauses in contracts to share FX risk with clients and suppliers as their preferred option.
Diversification to mitigate the impact of the trade war: around one-third of companies have already found new markets for exports and supply, and almost two-thirds are planning to do so. More than one-third of businesses have already found new markets to export to, while almost two-thirds were planning on doing so. On the supply side, for companies strongly integrated into global supply chains, geopolitical risks and the trade war are top-of-mind and are provoking reconfigurations: Over the whole sample, 54% of respondents consider geopolitical and political risks and social unrest among the top three threats to their supply chains. Such risks as well as tariffs and trade restrictions are pushing companies to rethink their supply chains. Even before “Liberation Day”, our survey shows that 34% of respondents had already found new locations for their offshore production sites and/or suppliers, and 59% were planning to do so. This is even more evident for US firms that have longer supply chains and a larger share of production abroad, with nearly 60% of them having already found relocation destinations.
US-China derisking is likely to continue despite the 90-day trade deal. While the 90-day truce between the US and China offers companies temporary relief, it is unlikely to alter their strategic plans, which have been in place since the first Trump mandate in 2017. Following “Liberation Day”, Chinese firms with supply chains in the Americas were even less willing to commit further in these regions, favoring more relocation to Asia-Pacific and Western Europe instead. For Chinese firms with supply chains in North America, Asia-Pacific is the preferred relocation destination (39% vs. 26% before “Liberation Day”). Staying in North America seems to be less of an option for Chinese companies, all of which say they would relocate. Before “Liberation Day,” 21% said that they would not relocate. Similarly, US firms with supply chains in China have also adjusted their relocation preferences: around one quarter of them now favor respectively Western Europe (up from 11% before “Liberation Day”) and Latin America (up from 9%), while the Asia-Pacific region gathers fewer answers than it used to (34% vs. 61%). After the “Liberation Day” announcements, US companies are more willing to relocate from China to friendlier countries, despite the higher costs of labor and/or energy (e.g. in Western Europe). The trade war has definitely decreased export opportunities between the US and China: from already relatively low levels, US businesses’ intention to export to China and East Asia dropped by 11pps (21% to 10%) between both surveys, while Chinese firms’ interest in exporting to North America collapsed by 12pps (15% to 3%). Despite the recent positive developments, the trade war persists and volatility in trade policies means that decoupling is likely to gradually continue.
The trade war is creating opportunistic friendshoring: the Europe-Asia rapprochement. Amidst the US-China tensions, Europe is emerging as an attractive alternative. Following “Liberation Day”, when asked about regions that present the most export opportunities, around a quarter of Chinese firms with supply chains in North America picked Europe (up from around 15% before “Liberation Day”). European firms are also increasingly interested in exporting to China and Asia: Between both surveys, export intentions increased by 6pps (30% to 36%), and the interest towards the South and Southeast Asian market doubled (7% to 14%) as trade links between the region are intensifying with more free-trade agreements. A similar increase in preference can be observed when it comes to supply-chain exposures. Following “Liberation Day”, fewer German firms with offshore production sites or suppliers in China were considering relocating elsewhere (50% vs. 67% before “Liberation Day”), and Asia-Pacific has become the preferred relocation destination (43% vs. 28% before “Liberation Day”) for German firms with current supply-chain exposure in North America. In comparison, the share of German firms choosing to stay in North America has not changed before and after “Liberation Day” (roughly 30%).
Can the Latin American exception hold? The region is emerging as a winner, with firms continuing to seek access to the US at lower cost. Chinese firms’ interest towards Latin America has increased by +10pps (5% to 15%) after the “Liberation Day” announcements, with the region offering access to the North American market with lower tariffs. They seem to be committing further to the region, with 35% of Chinese firms with supply-chain exposure in Latin America indicating to stay there after “Liberation Day”, compared with 24% before. European firms’ interest in Latin America has also increased, with the perception of export opportunities shifting up by +6pps (4% to 10%).